Gauging the Second Life Hype Cycle
By Adam Reuters
Kevin Dugan of the Strategic Public Relations blog is taking a look at where Second Life may fall on the Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle, with help from Clickable Culture’s Tony Walsh and Linda Zimmer of Business Communicators of Second Life.
The cycle is as follows:
1. “Technology Trigger”
2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations”
3. “Trough of Disillusionment”
4. “Slope of Enlightenment”
5. “Plateau of Productivity”
Kevin thinks the peak has passed and that Second Life has a ways to go before it reaches the trough:
When SL reaches “the slope and the plateau,” I think marketers that created an SL presence as a stunt for short term awareness will be gone.
The remaining brands will more closely align with residents’ real world demographics. They’ll also understand the opportunity with SL is not to simply mirror brands from real life, but to take advantage of SL and extend brands in ways they cannot in the real world.
Laura Zimmer estimates that the peak occurred “just after Reuters took the plunge.” (Don’t worry Laura, our feelings aren’t hurt.) That may dovetail with an analysis from Terra Nova’s Ren Reynolds, who is counting down the days until a media backlash against Second Life, and with several critical articles by Clay Shirky.
But could there more to the story?
Longtime Second Life observer Tony Walsh of Clickable Culture thinks there may be two waves overlapping:
“As I see it, the first wave involved early adopters, a handful of dedicated bloggers, and a few specific mainstream journalists. The first wave peaked before the second wave (comprised of a more mainstream audience, higher-profile bloggers, and numerous mainstream media outlets).”
… It seems entirely possible that developments from the first wave of users will even out the disillusionment dip, propelling both waves towards the Plateau of Productivity. My greatest concern in this context as we head into 2007 is whether or not Second Life as a platform can hold out long enough to allow us to reach that plateau.
(A spokeswoman for Gartner said that the firm has not officially assigned Second Life a position on its Hype Cycle, but is examining the issue.)
